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Developing plants that brim with accessible cellulose isn’t easy, however, explains horticulture professor Angus Murphy. Tinkering with complex cellular machinery, especially that of plant cell walls, has consequences. Cellulose provides important structural support, so changes must be carefully made and thoroughly studied to produce a viable crop.
Bridging the gap
Biofuels are only viable if they are economical. When it comes to cellulosic ethanol, the market by itself won’t deliver the goods, says professor of agricultural economics Wally Tyner.
“The market alone cannot reduce our greenhouse gas emissions or increase our energy independence, goals biofuels are meant to help achieve,” he says. “If we’re going to get to the promised land of cellulosic ethanol, we need a ‘bridge policy’ to get beyond corn.”
Late last year, Congress enacted the Renewable Fuel Standard, mandating that energy companies purchase 35 billion gallons of ethanol by 2022, 20 billion gallons of which must come from non-corn, mostly cellulosic sources. This policy promises a rosy future for biofuels, Tyner predicts, but difficult policy decisions remain to be made.
Vive la revolution
The challenge for policymakers stems in part from ethanol’s monumental impact. “We are living through a revolution in American agriculture,” Tyner says.
Historically, he explains, the price of crude oil and corn moved independently from one another. Things began to change in 2004, when surging oil prices and in-demand ethanol—along with the federal $0.51 per gallon subsidy given to ethanol blenders—made for big profits and a boom in production. Producers built more factories and bought an increasing percentage of corn to make into ethanol and be sold in blended gasoline.
The result: corn and crude oil prices are now tightly linked, which has major implications for the future. In 2007, for instance, 22 percent of the country’s corn was turned into ethanol, double the amount for 2004. This year, about 30 percent of America’s corn will go to this end, notes professor of agricultural economics Chris Hurt.
This new demand for corn helps raise food prices, reduce corn exports and strain infrastructure. The U.S. gasoline blending industry has limited capability to receive rail shipments, which are ideal for ethanol, explains Frank Dooley, professor of agricultural economics. In 2002, for example, only 11 percent of fuel blenders could receive rail shipments. Petroleum typically arrives via pipelines that cannot currently accommodate ethanol, due to its water-absorbing and corrosive nature.
Blending capacity also lags behind at urban terminals, where demand is high but space is limited for railways and excess fuel storage. With the Midwest producing 90 percent of the country’s ethanol, trains and an ever-growing number of trucks must carry it long distances, stressing rural roads and releasing additional emissions.
“These infrastructure concerns will cause some real problems in the near-term and help create pressure for lower ethanol prices. However, we should be able to resolve them within a few years,” Dooley says.
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